The linear TV market, while facing continuing declines in ratings due to an audience that has dispersed among streaming video, DVR playback and many other methods of consumption, will actually grow in revenue again in 2018.
There is a flight to quality mentality with the biggest brand advertisers right now who have concerns around the well known issues of fraud, brand safety, and measurement aspects of digital. That said, the TV industry isn’t going to sit still, there will be a continued push to enable more audience-based campaigns on linear TV that can leverage a brand’s or agency system’s first party data. This opens the door for the few technology providers that can actually provide software and data solutions to power both buyers and sellers of linear TV.
OTT’s growth will make those content experiences and TV shows a bigger part of the 2018 upfronts. This again will require solutions that help connect user data to both digital identifiers and linear TV viewing data. These are things that must happen for the industry to continue to grow, and to stay competitive with the FAANG giants in Video (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google).
And with the recent Disney/Fox deal, you’ll see Netflix start to weaken and Hulu start to strengthen. Netflix currently has a number of Disney premium content. All of that, especially the popular Marvel titles, will go to Disney’s OTT channels, leaving Netflix with a big gap to fill. While Hulu, given Disney now has a majority control, will begin to get stronger. Look for Disney to begin increasing their premium content on Hulu, a reversal of what we’ll see with Netflix.
Advanced TV Advertising will become more defined by the users and advertisers. Brands want to be able to buy TV and other screens using their own data, allowing them to reach customers with more precise uses of creative on the appropriate screen. Audiences have better viewing experiences with advertising frequency management and relevant messaging.