Global pay-TV revenues peaked in 2016 at $205 billion. Revenues will fall by 11% to $183 billion in 2023, despite the number of pay-TV subscribers rising by 9%.
Revenues per subscriber are declining as more homes convert to bundles.
Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “North American revenues will fall by a huge $22 billion between 2017 and 2023. The global decline will be $19 billion, so the other regions will grow overall. Western Europe will lose $2 billion but Asia Pacific will record a $3 billion increase.”
The Global Pay-TV Revenue Forecasts report estimates that eight of the top 10 countries will lose pay-TV revenues between 2017 and 2023. Revenues will decline in 47 of the 138 countries covered in the report between 2017 and 2023.
Twelve countries will lose more than 10% of their revenues. US pay-TV revenues peaked in 2015, at $102 billion. A $27 billion decline is forecast between 2015 and 2023 to take its total down to $75 billion.
China will gain nearly $1 billion in pay-TV revenues between 2017 and 2023 to bring its total to $13 billion – still a long way behind the US. India will provide the largest increase in pay-TV revenues at $1.6 billion. Revenues will more than double for six countries between 2017 and 2023. Eight of the top 10 fast-growth nations by percentage increase will be in Africa.
Satellite TV and digital cable TV revenues will continue to be similar. Satellite TV revenues were $83 billion in 2017; falling to $77 billion by 2023. Digital cable TV will supply $76 billion in 2023; down from $85 billion in 2023. Analogue cable TV still accounted for $7 billion in 2017.
IPTV is the pay-TV revenue winner, with revenues increasing from $25 billion in 2017 to $27 billion in 2023.